An EL poll, that's solid. Well, I have actual evidence from real people who did make lateral moves when things started going bad at their company. Many former Comair pilots currently work at envoy alone, pilots who left long before their actual furlough letter came when they saw the writing on the wall. Eagle/envoy lost 800 FOs between 2011 and 2014 who made lateral moves with what was going on there. We got just under 30 Republic FOs at envoy during their contract negotiations. Beside, my argument wasn't about whether those leaving would be junior or senior. (But yes, I do agree with you that the more senior a pilot is the less likely they would be to leave) My argument was that a stoppage of flow would cause an exodus, which harms the company's staffing regardless of what seniority those pilots may have had. To the company, a pilot is a pilot and trying to fix short staffing with a solution that was cause staffing to get worse doesn't make a lot of sense. Even if you attended a state school.
Are you just making things up as you go now. Envoy gets 50% of AA new hire class. period. Unless you figure out a way for hundreds of pilots to not turn 65 or lose their medicals or AA figures out a way to move planes around without pilots, they will have to hire new pilots and envoy gets 50% of those positions. Simple. Rates, suggestions... they have nothing to do with it. 50% of new hires are envoy. Simple.
I want a theorem that can be backed up with a logical arguments and actual evidence to support that theory. Not made up rates, suggestions and claims that "anything can happen". To be far, yes, ISIS could overthrow the US Government and not allow us to flow. Not likely, but since you like to deal in extreme unlikely scenarios. I concede, anything is possible.
So your argument is, "But they can ask you to renegotiate your contract?" Your scenario has so many far fetched assumptions, I'm surprised it didn't involves aliens and Purple Spaghetti monsters. The likelihood of your scenario happening is about as likely as APA agreeing to relax scope so that Parker can put the Embraer 190s at the regionals. How likely is that to happen? So yes, they could ask ALPA to renegotiate the flow just as they could as APA to further relax scope. The Earth could also get hit by a meteor tomorrow. Just because something has an extreme possibility doesn't make it probable.