What would happen if Kalitta, Atlas, and ATSG stopped renewing their flying contracts for DHL and shifted to new CMI contracts for Amazon? Would DHL be able to replace the flying fast enough to keep up?

Amazon has three problems (in addition to many others): planes, pilots, and competition.

If Amazon can entice existing ACMI carriers away from DHL contracts, that solves the pilot problem and damages DHL. Amazon still needs to find planes... but CargoFacts is speculating that some of the ACMI carriers are already sourcing them and converting them.

I'm cautiously optimistic, but it is an exciting idea. "Gee Deutsche Post, we're having trouble staffing the airplanes with qualified pilots, might need to let some of that flying expire unless you want to convince us otherwise, financially." Let Kalitta, Atlas, and ATSG start whipsawing DHL; I'm not saying the pilots would ever see any of it, but it would be fun to watch.