Originally Posted by
Squallrider
And looking at those scales you'll notice it's cheaper for mainline to outsource to cheaper crews. Beyond the hourly rate there's economies of scale from operating more than a few crjs for crew costs, maintenance costs etc. as well as diversification of risk by outsourcing.
I'm not saying it won't happen, but there will always be regionals in one form or another. If mainline can get their pilots to agree you will see 100 seaters at the regionals. The only way regionals will disappear is if staffing gets bad, so far SkyWest is staffing classes 80-100 people a month, where's the shortage? Surprisingly most new hires aren't not just making lateral moves but are military and CFIs.
On the up side the more planes mainline effectively take back the better the chance of moving on. There will never be a shortage at mainline.
Yes the rates are cheaper outsourced, but the UA pilots will not allow 100 seaters at regionals. Talked to too many of them to realize that. The only question UAL has to decide now is whether it will be EMB190s or CRJ1000s. Probably the 190s. That's why UA wants 15000 pilots on property ASAP.
Regionals won't go away but will shrink noticeably in a few years and management already knows that. UA and DL want the reliability back and they won't get it with struggling regionals. They are taking it back slowly but surely. ORD to MSN used to be a Skywest flight but now has 737s doing the 30 minute flight. Regionals are just hiring now to keep the wheel spinning in the meantime.....