Originally Posted by by the numbers

A lot of talk about upgrades, here are some figures.



There's two ways to look at the upgrade, both with their own faults.

First, based on upgrade classes.
There are 1350 pilots, with the most junior CA award for Feb. being around seniority 760. That leaves around 600 pilots waiting to upgrade. Upgrade classes are currently 14/month. 600 / 14 is about 42-43 months to upgrade.

This assumes that the class sizes don't change either up or down and more senior FOs who bypassed now take the upgrade.

The second way
Look at the % seniority which pilots are taking the upgrade. Currently it is around 56% on the seniority list. If that trend continues, there will need to be about 2400 pilots on property before the most junior FO (#1350) upgrades. With net growth around 30 pilots/month that will be around 35-36 months.

This assumes attrition doesn't increase and the % relative upgrade seniority doesn't change. It also doesn't include those who have bypassed upgrade.

In short, if current hiring and upgrade classes continue, it will be a 3 to 4 year upgrade vs. 2 years and 9 months it is currently.