Originally Posted by
ag386
I'm all for hiring as many as possible. I'm "throwing numbers out" to try and get as accurate a picture as possible for potentially looking ahead to what is really in store at Envoy. Numbers tell the story. If I'm wrong or you have different information, please post it. I will admit that I'm wrong if someone proves differently with actual numbers. The above is as accurate as I have right now.
I'm just trying to refute all of the posts on here that claim Envoy does not need new hires for the plan to work and that 2.5/6 is a reality and AAG isn't AMR, they are doing everything they said they were going to....blah blah blah. I'm doing this by trying to post factual information.
Envoy publicly stated they wanted 600 hires in 2013 and they got less than 175. In 2015, I think they wanted 400 and got 180ish. I'm not sure how many were hired in 2014. It's telling the numbers of new hires for two separate non adjoining years were similar. I'm expecting the same in 2016. Trying to make a "projection" as everyone on here is fond of saying.
It's real easy to throw numbers around
You state only 180 new hires in 2015, but you fail to mention that probably 100 or more of those have been hired since August. You also estimate (not sure how that’s a hard fact) 150 new hires in 2016. The current estimates for the first two classes in January are 20 each, that’s 26 percent of your estimate in the first month. So there is a pretty significant trend from August to January. Will it hold? Who knows, but projections based on trends hold more water than your guess.
Now let’s look at your numbers.
1954 - Current Envoy pilot list
Minus 300 - 2016 flows
Minus 100 - 2016 voluntary resignations/retirements/medicals
= 1554 Total pilots
+ 150 - 2016 New Hires
= 1704 Total pilots
As for you 11.6 min crew per plane number, I have heard it is generally around 10 per plane, so let’s split the difference to 10.8.
Using your projected pilot numbers and 11.6 min crew that gives us staffing for 146 airplanes.
Using 10.8 min crew, 157 airplanes
Using 10 min crew, 170 airplanes
I have no idea what the correct number is. I’m just comparing what you’ve heard to what I’ve heard.
I’m not sure where you got your fleet projections from (again, not a hard fact) but according to Ric’s letter, we will have 133 airframes at the end of 2016.
So using your min crew numbers we will have 161 extra pilots at year end 2016
Using 10.8, we have 268 extra pilots
Using 10, we have 374 extra pilots
Dang it, We’re stagnate again!