No, it's not BS. You are probably unaware that the ag38(X) accounts are just duplicate accounts of a troublemaker here at APC.

If you want to get an idea of the flow to AA, look at this page:
American Airlines | AirlinePilotCentral.com

Scroll down to the very bottom, and you will get an idea of the mandatory retirements by year. This does not take into account inactive pilots nor attrition (probably negligible).

Of course, this may change if the retirement age gets modified.

There are those that doubt the flow timeline, but no one can predict for sure, actually. I think it is possible, based on the little I know about Envoy, and talking to people a lot smarter than me. There are several factors to consider that people outside Envoy probably don't know enough about to be making any claims.