You'll get no certainties here on this question, only opinions. Here's another; No one (and I mean NO ONE) can make any reasonable assumption an Envoy new-hire of today will flow in X years, especially over half a decade from now. Same with PDT or PSA. Too many variables, like what becomes of Envoy (or the others) as the next year or two unfolds, what outside situations impact the industry and what AA does regarding its size and future need for pilots where retirement numbers don't necessarily dictate hiring requirements.

Will an Envoy new-hire of today flow in 6 years ir less ?

Maybe, maybe not. All the AAG flow pojections are nothing more then gambling odds in Vega$. You may win or you may lose.