Exactly how long do you think it would take to replace a bunch of A-319s with CS100s?

Let's go over a few numbers:
CS100/CS300s currently on order with airlines other than United:
Firm orders: 53/190
Firm options: 162
Purchase rights: 17
Commitments: 83/27 + 5 TBD
Commitment options: 60
Commitment purchase rights: 6
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...liveries_graph

SWISS International Airlines is the launch customer. Bombardier confirms SWISS as CSeries launch customer, first CS100 to enter service in 1H2016 | CAPA - Centre for Aviation


Bombardier is still building the third prototype CS100. They had talked about ramping up to being able to build 10 aircraft per month back in 2012 but I don't think there's been an update on the maximum number of aircraft they can produce monthly. My WAG is that it will be well short of 10 per month. https://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...amp-up-415924/


Bombardier isn't going to be able to crap out a bunch of CS100s in the next year. Just look at how slow deliveries of 787s are. IF United takes delivery of CS100s, the next contract will be mostly hammered out before the CS100 has a decent presence in the mainline fleet.

To complicate matters further, you haven't calculated out the ratio of CS100s replacing A319s in order to keep the number of available seats neutral. Throw in an increase of ~30% CS100s to equal current A319s and that wage differential rapidly diminishes (in other words, 13 CS100s = 10 A319s).


Let me put a different spin on this - the mainline CS100s will replace a lot of the regional partner 76 seaters. If you look at it in that manner, the CS100 replaces regional flying, not A319 flying. We can discuss whether the airline's upgauging vs downgauging, but if the airline were to downgauge with the current fleet mix, they'd be cutting larger planes than the A319.


If you're looking for a valid reason to vote no on the TA, this isn't it.