Originally Posted by
azcz10
I was at 9E (Pinnacle) in 2012. I was hired in 2011. Before I left I was about number 2,700 out of about 3,000. When we were hired we were told that they were hiring 60/month for the foreseeable future, that we'd upgrade in 18 months,...and that I'd get the ATL base out of training. Well, bankruptcy came, they closed ATL, and it looked like I'd be commuting to reserve again.
A buddy who was in my initial training class is still there and he's about number 1,450 out of about 1,600. I heard that Delta wants to bring back 30 of the 200's out of the desert in 2016. If you assume staffing of 4.5 crews per a/c, that's 270 pilot seats that will need to be filled. Delta is supposed to take about 12 pilots per month from the DGI program so that's 144. Total of 414 plus attrition. If you lose 10/month to attrition then that's another 120 for a total of 534. You need to be at or around 50% to upgrade. Some senior FO's won't upgrade for various reasons so you might not have to be all the way to 50%.
Do the math. If you're 1,601 in January then you'll be 1,067 at the end of December 2016. If they can hire 60/month like they want to do in 2016 and lose 534 in 2016 then you'll be # 1,067 out of 1,786. That's about 60% up the list. Lots of IF's in there.
Someone please check my math.

He should be much further in than 1450. I'm a 2015 hire in the low 1300s...
As far as upgrades here at 9E, the most junior captain is in the upper 900s so that places a 2015 hire around 300-350 to that most junior spot. I've also noticed I move about 30 spots per month. If nothing else happens then: 350/30 = 11.6. I would feel comfortable saying 12-18 months for someone hired this year.