At envoy we have at least 360 Captain's flowing to AA this year. In addition to them, there are about 50 envoy pilots who have been given job offers (outside of the flow) that will be going to AA this year as well. Based on AA's retirement schedule and projected 2017 hiring, about 360 envoy Captains will be flowing that year as well. This is in addition to the attrition to DAL, UAL, Spirit etc.

Management claims that they 250 upgrades planned for this year is based on hiring only 15 pilots per month. (We have yet to see the actual bid but that is their claim) So far for the last few months we have gotten twice that amount. It stands to reason then, so long as we have new hires replacing them, we should be upgrading new Captains to replace those leaving on a one to one ratio.