Originally Posted by
ULLI
You got to remember all these 2 year upgrades are with virtually zero airframe gain. We are scheduled to get net of 9 airplanes this year. Upgrades will float around 2 year mark for time to come.
Right now we're running ~8 crews per plane. Assuming that's proper staffing at peak utilization, with 9 more planes, we would need 72 more Captains is all.
To do a proper analysis we would need to know:
*How many crews per plane they want at ideal utilization.
*Accurate fleet size projections.
*Good handle on attrition numbers which will of course vary at different levels of seniority.
I tend to agree with the 4 year projection for people hired today. These brand-new-hires are ~1000 on the seniority list. Adjust for 100 by-passers, and they are effectively ~900 with respect to an upgrade. Now this would take a global seniority list 1800 strong in order for them to hold Jr CA. Which will require ~112 airframes at current utilization. It'll take 4 years to get there.
And all of this only if the music doesn't stop! Like it seems is happening at Spirit, for reasons I can't get my head around.