Originally Posted by
Big E 757
The quarter is closed out, they have a good idea of where our earnings are going to be. I would bet, though, that they estimated 4Q earnings using the street estimates so as not to give anything away. It could be a little higher. It could be a little lower.
I view the posted estimates simply as a tool for pilots to utilize when considering elections. It clearly states "21 percent," which is a round number that's been tossed around for some time. Clearly Q4 results have not been precisely included. I came up with an estimate of my own using the 12/31 paycheck and 21 percent.
I see a potential error with my posted estimate. My "Estimated Earnings" are very close to $10,000 low, when compared to the 12/31 paycheck, and the "2015 Pay Details" posted on the ESS page (one box to the right of Profit Sharing Special Election area). Hence, the PS payout estimate is about $2000 less than I would anticipate, assuming 21 percent of earnings. Yes, the PS paid out in February is backed out of the number I believe to be my true 2015 earnings. Has anybody else notice such a discrepancy?