Originally Posted by
Rock
Pilots and aircraft are the simplest part. In addition, you need all the supporting equipment at every airport to load/unload, sort and transfer freight from aircraft to ground vehicles. Then you need the manpower and vehicles to distribute packages to every house and business in every country Amazon intends to deliver. It has taken FedEx 45 years to develop its infrastructure. It employs over 300,000 people around the world. It has taken UPS 108 years and it employs over 400,000 people around the world. Just for delivering packages. And somehow Amazon expects to develop that kind of infrastructure in 5-7 years? If they actually plan to deliver all their own stuff, they can't do it half-assed. What's their business model going to look like for areas outside of major cities? "Sorry remote farm family in Nebraska, you can buy things on our website, but since you live outside our delivery network, you'll have to drive to Omaha to pick them up".
I think Amazon is playing poker. They want a better deal and they are making some noise. Good move on their part. It's getting noticed. But unless they have the capital to buy UPS or FedEx, they are decades away developing any kind of package delivery system capable of delivering their own stuff, never mind competing with FedEx/UPS.
Amazon doesn't have to deliver to every house in the US they only have to replace the trunk network FedEx/UPS is providing to the Postal Service distribution centers. The airplanes would only have to deliver packages to major hubs then semi-trucks (which has already been announced) to the regional USPS offices. Even then if it doesn't make sense I'm sure FedEx/UPS will do just fine, they're only going to take the low-hanging fruit that will provide the best cost savings.