Originally Posted by
geosync
Airlines will be the last to adopt pilotless aircraft. I think there will be a human up there to monitor the computer for the next several decades. After that....pilots will be relics of the past.
Vastly over-simplified.
There are some very big hurdles...
Assume the technology exists to do it safely...it already does, assuming you can exert a reliable external human control in cases where complex grey-area decisions must be made. The usual example is being boxed in and forced to fly through thunderstorms...interpreting radar is more art than science.
Cost:
- Cost of all the redundancy.
- Cost of backup ground-based control.
- Cost of TOTAL revamp of ATC enroute system.
- Cost of revamp of terminal approach systems.
- Cost of ground-handling systems.
Cultural:
- Responsibility: This is the biggy. Ultimately the pilot is to responsible if something goes wrong. With automated airliners, *somebody* has to accept that responsibility BEFORE the plane is allowed to leave. Who will that be? And that person or persons will be extremely anal and reluctant to dispatch unless everything is perfect. The greatest value of the pilot to the industry is probably as the scapegoat.
- Government Responsibility: Even bigger, the FAA has to certify such a system is safe. No protocols exist to do that. How do you even get them to agree on the protocols, much less actually certify an automated airliner to fly. Congress could force the issue if there was enough incentive but there probably wouldn't be.
- Fear of Unknown: Will enough of the public buy tickets initially? Half of them are already afraid to fly. Eventually they would get used to it but initially this would be a barrier to economic success.
Chicken vs. Egg: In order for this to happen the government needs to authorize it and update their infrastructure, the airframers to to design and build the planes, and the airlines need to buy. Who's going to spend the money first? No one will make the investment unless they KNOW the other parties are on board.
Government? Several hundred billion $ (look at nextgen costs) just to put 80,000 pilots out of work so the AIRLINES can make more money? And incur a lot of risk in the process. Nope, not government.
Airframers? Not going to spend money on something unless they know someone will buy it. And don't kid yourself, this is not going to be an add-on box to existing airplanes. Additional redundancy will need to be built in from the beginning.
Airlines? They are not going to commit to something for which operating regulations and infrastructure do not yet exist. They would benefit in the long run, but they take a VERY short-term financial view and managers are not going to invest vast sums in something which reap rewards in 50 years. They'd use it if existed, but they're not going to fund it up front.