Sky High,
That is not how it really works. At all the airlines I have applied to (Delta, FedEx, AirTran & ASA) the process was roughly the same. The first step was exceeding the minimum qualifications. The second was rounding up your contacts and finding the right person to push your paperwork forward to the right manager. The third was preparation and practice for the interview that made your competence and willingness to serve stand out.
Age is much less of an issue that it once was. Airlines understand that young pilots will someday be senior captains earning maximum longevity pay for a long time. At ASA, we were told that management actually wanted pilots to leave after about 5 years so they could avoid paying the big money at the upper end of our longevity. There are a handful $140,000 a year RJ pilots walking around who still have 25 years left.
You are correct to point out the risks of betting on a future job to these guys. They could get "lucky" like the Delta, NorthWest, United, American, MidWay and TWA guys got lucky at the end of the last cycle. A furlough is a heck of a way to flush 7 years.
I think many pilots are staying out of the business because they look around and see that half of the flying is being done by contract carriers with little job security. Flying is such an investment that it is difficult to rationalize the sacrifice necessary to get the brass ring.
Bucking Bar