Originally Posted by
Andy
I'll go out on a limb and say that I don't expect any aircraft orders in the near future. I expect United to pull back on CapEx and not add any new aircraft to the fleet until the economic conditions improve.
I glanced through Delta's earnings and forecasts. Delta's expecting a revenue decline and a CASM increase in the first quarter. That's not good.
In addition, Delta's international numbers looked pretty bad. That tells me United will do worse because ~30% of Delta's flying is international vs ~50% for United. Delta saw a 14% revenue decline in the Pacific, 7.2% revenue decline in Latin America and 5.4% revenue decline in Europe. It was Delta's domestic operations that saved their bacon - United's much more heavily weighted toward international flying so I'm not anticipating great numbers for the fourth quarter, nor am I expecting optimistic projections for the first quarter.
I use DAL out of Seatac a lot. Their international hub doesn't look like it is doing very well. They have pulled back frequencies to Asia on every route they fly. I think Star Alliance has the PNW market locked up with Air Canada, Air China, ANA, and Asiana all flying to YVR and SEA. I don't think DAL stands a chance out of SEA, at least not to Asia.