Originally Posted by
mike734
I figure they will lose one in the first five launches. After an investigation they will resume and lose another shortly thereafter. That will be the end of civilian space travel for a great while.
You heard it here first.
They might manage to do a better job than that. Their propulsion technology is pretty basic and well proven.
The space shuttle is not a good comparison...it's amazingly complicated and the technology in many systems is still bleeding edge even today. Several systems were engineered with razor-thin margins (heat shielding). The thing was almost a ready-made disaster. That's why nasa is returning to more conventional manned systems.