IMO, I believe alot more than 25% will retire. My guess is at least 50% or more. But the fact remains, not including the "Ropes", we are retiring 90 front seat pilots this year. And we have Menlo starting up in July. And we have 9 Firm aircraft deliveries. Just accounting for the retirements and aircraft deliveries, NO Contract, 7 Pilots a month just doesn't cut it. And what happens if we do get a signed contract. Where are the 100 FE's coming from? (50%). It would take at least 6 months to train em. And UPS can't force the "ropes" to stay. It just doesn't add up. You'll see.
Gemini or World.