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Old 02-18-2016 | 08:52 AM
  #170  
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atpcliff
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Joined: Mar 2007
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From: Capt
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THERE WILL NEVER BE A SHORTAGE FOR THE TOP AIRLINES PERIOD
Sorry, but this is wrong.

Let's say you have ONE airline that pays $1m/year. It won't have trouble filling it's seats. But, our shortage is systemic. There are not enough new pilot starts to replace the MASSIVE amounts of baby boomers that are retiring. Also, there is world-wide increase in passenger seat-miles.

So, if you don't pay $1m, then you will be suffering. So lets say DAL/AA/UAL/FedEx/UPS/Alaska/Hawaiian all pay $1m. There won't be enough pilots.

You think, the high pay will attract more students. Unfortunately, high pay in the future doesn't pay for training TODAY. Training costs are skyrocketing, compared to the typical median income US family, because the rich are getting richer and richer, and the rest of us are getting poorer.

You CANNOT get a $60K bank loan to flight train today, no matter how much you want to. It doesn't matter what the salaries are, if no one can afford the training costs.

Solutions:
Short Term:
Some entity, other than banks, loans money to cover training costs...the airlines, the government...someone.
Electric trainers become widespread, thus reducing the cost of the aircraft by about 50%...that will solve some of the problem.
Some entity, other than the pilots, pays for their training. DAL, for one, is planning on Ab-initio training.
Hire foreign pilots. There aren't anywhere near enough, right now.
Something has to be done FAST! It probably won't happen, so the age will have to be raised to cover the gap until the flight training numbers get caught up with retirements.

Long Term:
See the above about guaranteeing loans, or ab-initio.
Foreign pilots WOULD work, as at some point, countries like China can get their infrastucture set up to train large numbers of pilots.
More allowed use of Sims by the FAA to cover the majority of flight training would also help.

Longer Term:
Going to single pilot airliners would help.
Going to to other forms of transport, like maglev trains or hyperloops, would help a lot.

Longest Term:
Going to a system where we don't move our physical bodies to interact in real-time 3D, with sight, sound, hearing, taste, touch would help.
Going to something like matter transporters (like Star Treck) would solve most, if not all of the problems. Freight probably would still be too expensive to move in this manner.
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