Originally Posted by
CLazarus
Payments for these jets are likely going to be very cheap, and a comparative bargain vs. leasing. Big question in my mind is how many narrowbodies are coming off lease in the next couple of years and how many of those leases will be renewed. Then we'll have a better idea of how much growth this really represents.
I just took a look at the newly posted UCH Annual Report (10-K). Most of the document frightens and confuses me, but it appears that Aircraft Operating Leases for 2016 and 2017 are projected at 1.3 Billion each year followed by steady decline to 700 million by 2020 (page 98). So, it seems that UAL might indeed be buying to replace aircraft coming off of leases that won't be renewed. Roughly two thirds of our 700/800s (99 aircraft precisely) are leased and have an average age of about 15 yrs (pg 22). So, I am not at all sure that these latest purchase announcements in themselves amount to very much end growth. But hey, I got to fly a shiny new ER the other day with the new hot mic switch. Beats a rubber band!