535T 65ME (CFI/CFII/MEI) - 4/yr degree - Currently flying skydivers

I've been reading all the threads on these two regionals because I'm particularly interested in both. I live in Madison, WI and have lived in MN.

I know it all comes down to what I want to do, but I'm really fretting on which airline to choose between these two. I have friends at Mesaba and I know friends that are applying at AE. Basically, life is as good as it can be for any starting 1st year FO at either place. However, long-term is more of a concern for me.

I would love to fly for AE, but I'm really worried about overall upgrade times. My buddy (25/yr old) doesn't seem very concerned about that and the move to AE appears to be more of a QOL issue since AE is practically in his backyard. For me (34/yr old, married) I think I should be concerned about when I might be able to upgrade.

I have no issues with either regional other than that. Right now, I have questions about communting....I suppose I could easily commute out of KMSN easily, but having not actually done that, I don't know how rough it would be until then.

My wife is good with either decision I make, but I guess I'm concerned about the decision in the long run. It doesn't seem like there's much hope of making it AA, but at my age...a long career at the regionals, or a charter company after building up some time doesn't seem like a bad idea either. NW is going through alot of changes (heck, they all are), but I'm really confused about what decision is best for me in my situation. I guess what I'm saying is that I'd be more willing to hedge my bet on a regional that could assure me that an upgrade to CA won't take longer than 3 years.

What do you think? Thanks.