I would consider 20% of those pilots at the regionals are lifers, with probably another 10% of unhireable(dui's, age, driving record, no degree, etc). Also, of the 10k of apps on file you have the same (cfis with 200 hours and other low time guys, unhireables, convictions and more).

Just like say the police department, there will always be a 10/1 ratio of applications to positions available, but a high percentage of individuals aren't qualified for various reasons.

I doubt there will be a major shortage, but there should be a nice movement the next 10 years.