Originally Posted by
FirstClass
It sounds terrific, it really does. But its going to end. Study the mathematics of what's coming. Six years from today more major airline pilots will have retired than there are regional pilots to replace them with, ie about 18,000. If I was you guys, I would try and switch to alpa so your seniority can be properly integrated. That's what frontier just did, they see the writing on the wall, they will be merged in with spirit. The LCC consolidation hasn't even started yet. Watch for training contracts at LCC's. What's your attrition rate at Allegiant right now?
I'm showing 11,054 retirements (AA, UA, DAL, UPS, FDX, ALK) for the next 6 years from today and 20,426 regional pilots as of today. Where are you getting your numbers? Don't forget military, corporate, cargo, charter, returning expat taking some legacy jobs. This will put pressure on the LCC's for sure but this isn't a leak a good contract won't seal in my opinion.