2 year upgrades are already over.

People getting hired today are looking at closer to 4 years.

I base this statement on the fact that a newhire today will be number ~1000 on the list. The most Jr upgrade just recently awarded was ~64% down the list (many continue to bypass.)

In order for a newhire today (#1000) to achieve the ~64% mark we need to have ~1600 pilots on property.

If 1000 pilots staff ~56 planes then 1600 pilots staff ~90 airplanes.

What's our growth plan guys? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't see how we have 90 airplanes 2 years from today.

Also as upgrades go deeper, bypassers will get off the fence because they won't be commuting to reserve, etc. Possibly bringing that ~64% number closer to ~60%

And, attrition among those above the most most junior upgrade is scant.