You are one of the pro Envoy guys right? The ones who jump all over anyone who says something negative about Envoy.
Hardly. As I've said many times, the 2.5 year upgrade is fast becoming an impossibility. It seems to concern you that someone is pointing out your motives, so you have resorted to feeble attempts at lumping me in with the rest.
I agree that the date of pilots currently flowing may not necessarily be an indicator of a future flow time frame.
But you follow up with 6 more paragraphs to redirect your arguments.
What I can give you though is the last pilot to flow was around the 330's on the list. Let's just look at those hired through the end of 2011 since that's about when the current agreement of 50% ends. The end of 2011 hires are around the 1710s. So, 1380ish guys to flow. If you flow 300 per year, you are looking at about 4.6 years to get through the end of 2011. So, about October 2020 until the last 2011 hire makes it over from today. So, there's your company math.
This is actually the most straightforward thing I've ever seen you write.
That's saying that Envoy will flow 30 guys each and every month for the next 4.6 years from today without stopping. We already know that the flow is going to stop around June. We don't know how long though, it depends on how many come back.
Your timeline is wrong, but that doesn't matter. What does matter, like you said, is the duration. It's estimated by AAG management, not Envoy, at 3 months.
Attrition will likely help improve your numbers above by the way. Now, let's look at the fleet. We know the CRJ's aren't going anywhere soon, if at all. The pilot crunch is on big time as PSA can't find guys to fly what AAG wants them to. Let's just say that Envoy lands with 35 CRJ's, 90 145's and 40 175's to fly for the next two years solid. And let's figure 1750 total guys needed to do that. Sure, you guys have 1/3 or more of the company on reserve today, but as those 175's keep trickling in and the CRJ's stay and 145's stay due to cheap gas, you will need more pilots.
With 1900ish guys on the list today, I would say by the end of this year, you will start hearing the company squawking about not having the pilots to fly what AAG wants them to.
You're probably right about this too...along with 90% of the other regionals.
I will admit that if the company honors the flow, which they have already proved they aren't going to, coupled with the math above, yes, it adds up to a 6 year flow for everyone today. A projection just like you guys are so happy to talk about.
This is a bit of a mischaracterization. Management is at a turning point until the end of the year. IF, and yes that's IF, they true-up at the end of the year, there won't be a problem. The agreement allows them to do this.
Here's your big IF. Will Envoy get enough new hires to replace the pilots leaving via flow and attrition? Hiring 15 per month isn't going to cut it. One thing I can guarantee you is......Envoy ain't gonna park any airplanes that AAG wants them to fly, flow be d**ned.
I agree that in the long term the numbers to sustain staffing are questionable, and that is something that every wholly owned will have to address. You however seem to have all the answers. 
There's your big problem as I see it. This goes along with the very rosy picture painted above. My best guess is that Envoy will flow out the 824 as soon as possible and then, if not before if 824 guys are needed for staffing, you'll start to hear the company's complaints about how they can't flow due to the necessity of staffing Envoy frames. They've already proven that with an overstaffed situation, they're willing to go against you guys for a mere 5 guys in one month. This is even before the big flow slowdown of the summer while Letter T's return.