I think you'll start to see the LCCs have junior CA attrition when the bottom of their seniority lists turn into revolving doors as legacies hire more LCC pilots.

Just look at regionals. Their entire seniority lists are moving backward due to their seniority lists shrinking. The same is very likely to happen at the LCCs within a few years. All of a sudden, those junior CAs today end up flying a lot of trips as senior FOs because the company can't keep FOs on property. Will the LCCs pay junior CAs left seat pay to sit in the right seat? Not when it becomes a regular thing and they have to downgrade junior CAs to FO.

I listened to the person in charge of hiring at United speak to a small group of pilots a few weeks ago about hiring at United and he expressed concern about the stack of applications shrinking. If the legacies are expressing concern about the smaller hiring pool, I've got to imagine it is getting a lot tougher at the LCCs.

A recent United class had 23 newhires; out of those 23, at least one was from Spirit and one was from Allegiant. Granted, both were FOs but LCCs are going to find themselves unable to grow because they'll have to be hiring as many as possible just to keep up with attrition.

As far as future pay trends, I think that the legacies will be able to throw money at pilots a lot faster than LCCs because legacies will be able to raise ticket prices faster than LCCs. A businessman will have to/be able to pay higher ticket prices while a family will be more reluctant to take a vacation if ticket prices rise significantly.