Originally Posted by
Andy
Look at new student/private/commercial/ATP certificates issued over the last decade. The pipeline of new pilots looks bleak right now which means airlines are going to try to hire as many qualified pilots as they can get their hands on.
The hiring at legacies over the last four years has turned the regionals from well staffed to train wrecks. And the hiring at legacies during that time is only enough to meet retirements plus minor growth. Legacy retirements alone require ~2000 new hires per year.
Let's not forget that all airlines - legacies, LCCs, and regionals are fishing from the same pond of pilot candidates. The legacies are able to offer better 'bait' (pay, QOL) than LCCs and regionals. This has already started killing the regionals. I expect the same to happen to LCCs, as I don't think that they can compete against the legacies for a smaller pilot pool.
We'll either see a huge surge in new pilot certificates which will meet demand for pilots or the LCCs will start having problems recruiting and retaining pilots within the next few years.
You're focusing on the fact that Legacies (withstanding) are, at this moment, the most desirable destination due to pay, QOL, etc. Everything is relative to timing; so would you have turned down a job at Southwest in the late 90s (or even post 9/11) in favor of a Legacy job? Not unless you wanted to spend nearly a decade furloughed. How will your legacy perform under the next economic downturn or $100+ per barrel oil prices? If your Legacy airline starts to lose money, you're one of the first to get the boot.
The ULCCs create revenue under wider profit margins than the Legacies. Will the pay come up for ULCCs as the competition for qualified pilots increases, the simple answer is "yes" because they can budget for higher pay. Otherwise explain to me how LCC Southwest pilots were once the bottom-feeders in pay, and over time their pay was increased steadily to put them on top for narrowbody pay? And somehow even with those top-of-the-heap pay rates Southwest has maintained its reputation on Wall Street for reliable profitablity!
It starts with a successful business plan. As a small and successful business either you're bought up by the bigger competition or you manage to remain independent and grow.
In the case of ULCCs, if the business does well, eventually the pilots do well. If a ULCC is bought, it is to be merged, not liquidated (it would be foolish to suggest otherwise). There is a lot of precedant to prevent pilots of a successful airline from being stapled to the bottom of a list.
So the question really is, do you see the ULCC business plan as sustainable or unsustainable?
... Legacies, LCCs, ULCCs, they all have risks!