I would be leaving under the terms of staying at JetBlue until retirement. My concern with the flow is that of everyone who truly understands it. It can and for all purposes should slow down this summer with the final return of the furloughes. Right now I'm looking at 3-4 years however that will change after May. By how much no one knows. Let's say it adds 6 months. Now I'm at 3.5-4.5 years before flow, still not terrible but being a New englander that's a long time for a guaranteed commute by airplane appossed to driving to work at JetBlue(BOS-JFK JR bases) And at the end of the day going to JetBlue will not cut me off from a chance in the near future at either big 3, so all tho I will be leaving on the hope to stay until retirement - it's not an ultimatum. Obviously it is weighing on me and I do appreciate the advice offered thanks.
(Let's see how this vacancy bid turns out. That could be the final straw either way)
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I think you should go with your gut, you said you gut feeling was to run with the offer I would say do it. Everyone I know who works for JetBlue absolutely loves it, and won't be going anywhere else. Either way its a roll of the dice, its a gamble to stay and wait to flow just as much as it is to progress your career and go with JetBlue. If you could drive to work, I don't think you would ever regret it.
Also, lets assume things stay constant and assume a four year upgrade at B6 or a 4-5 year flow to AA as you stated. In four years at B6 you would be a junior capt, making around 189 a hour, and able to sell back 9.5 hours a month at 1.5% or an extra 32,319 on top of your base salary! Or you hang out at envoy, wait for the flow and make 80ish per hour on reserve at AA the same year you could be making around 200k at JetBlue at min guarantee and PTO sell back. The icing on the cake would be driving to work.
To me its a no brainer, run to JetBlue. In full discloser I left envoy to start at an ULCC after 2 years and 10 months. Good luck to you!