Originally Posted by
sulkair
2 year upgrades are already over.
People getting hired today are looking at closer to 4 years.
I base this statement on the fact that a newhire today will be number ~1000 on the list. The most Jr upgrade just recently awarded was ~64% down the list (many continue to bypass.)
In order for a newhire today (#1000) to achieve the ~64% mark we need to have ~1600 pilots on property.
If 1000 pilots staff ~56 planes then 1600 pilots staff ~90 airplanes.
What's our growth plan guys? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't see how we have 90 airplanes 2 years from today.
Also as upgrades go deeper, bypassers will get off the fence because they won't be commuting to reserve, etc. Possibly bringing that ~64% number closer to ~60%
And, attrition among those above the most most junior upgrade is scant.
There's so many variables that play into this debate that it's impossible to predict what the upgrade time will be. For now it's at two years. Let's look at the five year plan...I know that's hard to make 5 year projections but lets just try.
In the next 60 months: A quick look at the F9 seniority list shows 47 retirements (36 which are active). 100 new planes to be delivered with about 57 planes now online. Multiple sources have told me that we lose about 50-60 pilots per year. We have about 950 active pilots on the seniority list. So basically, we will be close to tripling in size.
That info alone looks promising for continued 2-3 year upgrades.
Is F9 perfect? What carrier is? Things here are looking great and I feel the long term business plan at F9 is better than any carrier in the nation which means stability and growth.