Originally Posted by
SpankysLadder
There's so many variables that play into this debate that it's impossible to predict what the upgrade time will be. For now it's at two years. Let's look at the five year plan...I know that's hard to make 5 year projections but lets just try.
In the next 60 months: A quick look at the F9 seniority list shows 47 retirements (36 which are active). 100 new planes to be delivered with about 57 planes now online. Multiple sources have told me that we lose about 50-60 pilots per year. We have about 950 active pilots on the seniority list. So basically, we will be close to tripling in size.
That info alone looks promising for continued 2-3 year upgrades.
Is F9 perfect? What carrier is? Things here are looking great and I feel the long term business plan at F9 is better than any carrier in the nation which means stability and growth.
You're right, if beginning in 2017 growth starts clipping at a rate of 20 additional airplanes per year, upgrade will tick back up into the 2.5 to 3 year range. But is our growth plan really that aggressive?