We have 3200 +/- pilots on property right now.

If you assume about a 70% seniority for the most junior CA, you would need 4500 pilots (give or take) for the guy at #3200 (hired in 2016) to be awarded a CA slot.

We are scheduled to take 91 320s/321 through 2023. We're also scheduled to take 24 190s by then as well, but I would bet a month's salary we'll never see them.

So if you assume 14 pilots per aircraft order, through 2023, you're looking for an additional 1274 pilots (91 x 14). Add that to the 3200 we have right now, and you get the 4500 pilots on property. There's your 7 years.

Obviously, things might change, but if a new hire is planning to upgrade prior to 7 years, I think they're being a bit aggressive. We have a VERY young pilot group as well. Maybe 150 retirements through 2023, so not a lot of upward mobility that way either.

Sorry for the reality check.