Originally Posted by
Max Relax Roll
Yeah but aren't you assuming that no one above #3200 quits, dies, gets medically DQ'd, abducted by aliens, etc.?
I have no idea how many guys do that each year, but I'm quite positive it's not zero (nor statistically insignificant).
78 people retired, quit, died, got medically dq'd, or got abducted by aliens in 2015.
My guess is that will increase. In fact the company hired in 2015 with an estimate of 150 attrition.
Assuming the plane count increases as specified above, and assume a modest 100 attrition per year, I'd say 5 years is realistic.
Time on reserve though? I'll let someone else discuss that but my wild guess would be a minimum of another 5 years.