Originally Posted by
BunkerF16
We have 3200 +/- pilots on property right now.
If you assume about a 70% seniority for the most junior CA, you would need 4500 pilots (give or take) for the guy at #3200 (hired in 2016) to be awarded a CA slot.
We are scheduled to take 91 320s/321 through 2023. We're also scheduled to take 24 190s by then as well, but I would bet a month's salary we'll never see them.
So if you assume 14 pilots per aircraft order, through 2023, you're looking for an additional 1274 pilots (91 x 14). Add that to the 3200 we have right now, and you get the 4500 pilots on property. There's your 7 years.
Obviously, things might change, but if a new hire is planning to upgrade prior to 7 years, I think they're being a bit aggressive. We have a VERY young pilot group as well. Maybe 150 retirements through 2023, so not a lot of upward mobility that way either.
Sorry for the reality check.
I think this is a good projection of the future for a newhire today. Anyone coming here should plan on 7yrs to upgrade. If it happens early? Great! But don't come here expecting a 3yr upgrade or else you're setting up for big disappointment.
When I came here 5 years ago the junior 190/320 upgrades were 6 and 8 years respectively. I expected that to hold true, or even extend longer, but found other reasons for choosing JetBlue (living in base was the biggest). I'd urge others to think this way as well, and not try to chase an upgrade.