Originally Posted by
SayAlt
Rubbish.
Anyone flying 121 today will be at a major within the next decade. Won't matter where one is working right now.
Demographics and the rate of population growth world-wide alone guarantee it, to say noting of other relevant factors.
"Flow" is nothing more than a carrot to lure new hires in lieu of hard cash today. Oh sure, some have to flow. Otherwise the carrot won't work.
But you can be absolutely certain that more pilots will "flow" from the non-WOs regionals (while they last) than the majors will scavange from their own WO'ed regionals. In fact, you can absolutely bet the entire farm on it. Parker and Anderson are not about to create a staffing problems at their WO'ed regionals when they can do so among the non-WO'ed regionals.
That's how I see it. The only way around that I can see is if wholly owned carriers become a new rung on the ladder - ie American and Delta force Non wholly owned pilots to work for their feed in order to be hired at mainline. In other words, RAH and SkyWest pilots can't get to mainline delta or American unless they take a job at a wholly owned regional. Not today obviously but maybe that is in the future.
Again, I just don't see mainline destroying their own feed when there are other viable tasteless options at their disposal.