Originally Posted by
GodIsGood
Here are some conservative flowthrough numbers for pilots thinking about coming to Envoy and for all the pilots out there who say the flowthrough will not work.
Let’s start with some basics about Envoy and the flow. Envoy currently has 1950 pilots on the seniority list. The top 300 have already bypassed the flow many many times and will retire from Envoy. Let’s conservatively make it 250. That means a new-hire has 1700 pilots to get through before he/she flows. Envoy currently has 5-10 pilots leaving every month in addition to the flow, most of which are senior FOs and junior CAs. Obviously, the more senior you become at Envoy, the less of those 5-10 a month leaving help you move up. We will conservatively use 0 attrition to other airlines in our calculation. The pilots flowing to AA are currently flowing at a rate of 30 a month. Yes, AA recalls could slow that down for 2 or 3 months this year, but that is all. We will add that to the final calculation.
Here is the flowthrough contract broken down. The 824 pilots are currently flowing at a rate of 50% of the new hire positions at AA. That can be metered down to 30, and it is. After the 824 pilots flow, it drops to a 35% flow rate. But that bumps back up to 50% when Envoy receives the 40th E-175. That happens to coincide at the time their 824th pilot flows. So, in essence, the flow rate stays at 50% but metered to 25 from the last of the 824 till the pilots hired after October 11, 2011. Then it drops to 35% until the DOS (Date of Signing) pilots. If American continues to hire only 60 a month, then 35% is 21 per month flowing to AA. Then we get to the DOS pilots. The pilots hired after December 2014 will flow at a rate of about 15 pilots per month.
The most recent Envoy pilot awarded to flow has a seniority number of 415. The last pilot hired before October 11, 2011 has a seniority number of 1675. The difference between them is 1260 pilots. If you take a very conservative 25 a month for this entire group, it will take 4 years, 2 months to get to the last of the 10/11/2011 pilots.
The last pilot hired in December 2014 (DOS) has a seniority of 1849. To get to that pilot, it will take another 8.2 months, using 21 per month.
From the DOS pilot to the most recent new-hire is 101 pilots. At 15 a month, it will take 6.7 months.
Add all these groups up and you get 5 years 5 months to flow for a new-hire hired today. As promised, add 2-3 months for the AA recalls and you are at 5 years 8 months. And that is without considering any attrition to other airlines which, like I stated before, is about 5-10 a month. Take that into consideration, and you will be well below a 5 year flow.
These are just the straight numbers and facts on the conservative side. How’s that for “lies” and a “used car salesman” pitch. Obviously we could have a terrorist attack or a major economic collapse or the retirement age could be changed, but no airline pilot would be in a good situation if that happened. I would rather be at a WO airline that could weather the storm.
For those of you who struggle with numbers and projections, you don’t use current reserve, upgrade, or flow to decide which airline you should go to. You need to look at what those times will be for you hired today. Envoy’s most junior reserve, upgrade, and flow are 22 months, 8 years, and 16.5 years respectively, but those pilots went through 9/11, age 65, 2008, and the AMR bankruptcy.
This is still nothing but the most optimistic projections that span over half a decade. 9/11 wasn't anticipated, but it happened. Age 65 wasn't anticipated, but it happened. AMR's BK wasn't anticipated, but it happened. Same with the Gulf War, SARS or any number of other negative factors impacting this historically cyclical industry in the past. Envoy's flow is a risky primary reason to select it solely for that reason and is ripe to be a foundation for disappointment if it is.
Caveat Emptor.
While your polishing rosy hypothetical laurels about Envoy's future flow, how about the 2.5 year upgrade still being advertised ? If 205 F/O's upgrade in 2016, what's the engine to upgrade the other 2/3 to 3/4 or upwards of 700 pilots over the following 18 months ? Envoy will need perhaps 900 pilots over the next 2.5 years just to maintain the flow projections above or Envoy shrinks, requires less captains and is in jeopardy of an inability to provide its lift obligations to AAG. This alone could jeopardize the flow in addition to outside forces unanticipated like so many others in the past. If Envoy claims its situation is now so perilous that releasing 5 more measly F/O's in March to live up to its advertising promises will be too destabilizing (especially with present staffing), imagine what REAL geopolitical or economic speed bumps will result in there.
Hey, it's a nice pitch.........really. But, I think it's founded on "irrational exuberance" concerning the flow and "unconnected dots" regarding the upgrade. I think considering the reality of the number of pilots available now and especially over the next few years, Envoy is in as grave a situation as any other regional in meeting its obligations and the flow through is a by-product dependent on that reality.