All these developments are really interesting and I enjoy the discussion.

At the end, these are all marketing tactics employed to attract talent. Some use flow, others first year pay, yet others sign on bonuses, quick upgrades – whatever. The good news is that there are plenty of good choices. I think the jury is still out there on which one works – or works best.

The biggest fallacy in all of this – and that pilots love to fall into – is the fact that the pilot career is the biggest pyramid scheme known to man-kind. It makes Bernie Madoff like a small time offender who should have gotten away with 30 days of community service.

Everyone is looking at the multi-million dollar career, flying a 777 for 5 days a month and pulling 250K+ a year.

But like any pyramid, it is getting very narrow at the top and not everyone can get that gig.

So proceed with caution on any argument that says: “sacrifice now because there will be a big payout in x years”. Whether that is flow, lower pay rates or any other concessions. If your are financially inclined think of it as an NPV calculation... time value of money and more importantly QoL does matter!!!

Keep in mind that pyramid schemes only work if you can keep bringing people in down below. Airlines are no different. Life is miserable if you are the bottom of the seniority list with no / little movement because airlines cannot hire.

In the past, this wasn’t an issue. There were plenty of wide eyed flyers willing to do whatever it takes. You could easily “Comair” your operations and start over again with the same assets (airplanes) and management team. The beauty is that you reset seniority in the process and start with a lot lower cost. Because of the initial growth it looks like great progression etc. and the machine feeds itself.

Times have changed and bad behavior / reputation is much more persistent than it was in the past. Making up for past mistakes / ruined reputations will be a lot more costly than it was before. And I think you see that in who is being able to attract talent in the current environment.

This argues for WO no messing with flow in the long rune but then again, none of the data/examples discussed so far are really convincing. It will probably take a long time to rebuild that trust. Time will tell if all these tactics will start the hiring engine again.


My advice to new hires is to look at the overall package – and pay is one of the last things on my list.

Go to a place that:

>> attracts candidates and can fill classes. It sucks to be on reserve. And there are many options out there where you can hold a line out of IOE or a few months after. And think about the pyramid scheme dynamics!!!
>> has a base near/where you live. The only thing worse than being on reserve is commuting to reserve.
>> is a place you are comfortable staying for the long term. You never know how all of this play out. Hopefully you are lucky and you move on quickly. But even being 5-6 years at a place you don’t enjoy can be a long time. None of the lifers I meet have planned on becoming a lifer. But life happens and here they are. Hopefully at a place they are enjoying