Originally Posted by
SayAlt
So what?
10 years ago it was foolish to believe that.
10 years ago Congress had not mandated the ATP rule. 10 years ago airline retirements forced by demographics weren't looming as they are now (even with the age 65 increase).
10 years ago no one was giving signing bonuses and pay rate increases.
10 years ago there was no talk of "flow" and upgrades weren't happening in less than 2 years.
Like you said, things change.
Today, it isn't foolish to believe a new hire will be at a major within a decade.
Don't be bitter at today's 121 new hires because they will do in 5-7 years what you have yet to accomplish in 10+. That only makes you small and selfish and feeds into the "us vs. them" mentality that divides pilots and harms pilot unity.
Bottom line: just because it hasn't happened for you yet doesn't mean circumstances won't change (hint: they have) and today's new hires will necessarily experience what you've experienced. And don't be jealous if they don't have to endure what you've endured.
I'm not jealous or bitter, I think it's great. I don't know anyone who is jealous.
Your arguments are mostly true. There were actually 2-year and less upgrades at some regionals 10 years ago. I remember at my Mesa interview (I didn't take the job there), they told me 12 month upgrade. And there was talk of flow, after all 10 years ago we at Eagle were flying with ex-TWA and ex-AA flowbacks, who were able to flow back to Eagle because our flowthrough agreement had a provision for them to flow back in the event of furloughs from AA, and the resulting stagnation at Eagle (combined with the fact that the top of our seniority list were given AA seniority numbers and therefore didn't try to leave for anywhere else) is part of the reason we are such a senior workforce with such a long upgrade time. I agree with you though that times have changed. The massive number of retirements is promising, and possibly makes flowthrough less valuable than advertised--like you said, almost all of us will be at a major in 10 years, flow or not.
Another wild card is that I think more changes are coming to the regionals and nobody knows exactly what they are. The staffing numbers don't add up. Consolidation, merging, more flow, etc. Because of the unknowns, I personally think that people should make the flow only one of the many considerations when choosing where to work, not really outweighing the rest. Just my opinion. I don't have any more access to any of this info than any other line pilot.