Its not a shortage of people that WANT to fly the airplanes. There are many who want to fly for the Air Force. The problem is two-fold. Firstly, production. At the moment the AF produces about 1200 pilots per year. About 300 of these go through T38s (and are therefore "qualified" to be fighter pilots). Of the pilots that go through T38s, about 1/4 to 1/3 will go fly Bombers. This means the whole US Air Force produces only 200-220 pilots per year who will go on to be fighter pilots (if they don't wash out of a portion of their training down the road). The actual number may be slightly higher or lower (+/-10%), but I'm confident that I'm in the ballpark.

Undergraduate Pilot Training is a one-year program. Once a candidate finishes UPT (and is a pilot in the AFs eyes), if he or she is going on to fighters, IFF (Introduction to Fighter Fundamentals) is the next stop. 2-3 more months. Then Formal Training Unit (FTU, also know as the Basic Course or B-Course). This is another 6-9 months. All of these training events are typically located at different bases, so you have to factor in the time to move from one base to another, and deal with the corresponding ass-pain and bureaucracy. Ultimately, with no delays in training, a typical candidate will go from starting UPT to graduating the B-course in about 2-2.5 years.

But you're not done yet. You arrive at your fighter squadron as a newly graduated wingman. At this point you are literally nothing but raw material for the squadron to mold into a combat aviator. You know how to fly the airplane, and how to execute basic tactical tasks if someone (your flight lead) can get you to and from the fight. You spend the next 4-5 years becoming an expert in the weapons system. At the end of this time you FINALLY understand how to employ the aircraft to the full extent of its lethality, and you can probably teach others how to do this. Realize that this is now 6-8 years after you started Undergraduate Pilot Training. With the 10 year commitment (clock starts when you FINISH UPT) most fighter pilots will have 3-5 years left on their commitment. At the end of this 10 year commitment, you can walk away, no questions asked.

So the production problem for the USAF is really exposed when you realize that it takes 6-8 years to produce a fighter pilot, but they can walk away with little notice, and you only have 200-220 per year. Each year that retention is "below the line" (below their model forecast line) you have the experience the AF was counting on to lead and instruct the next generation of pilots, walking out the door, and that expertise takes YEARS to replace. The acceleration in airline hiring means that more guys are leaving, because they have a place to go.

The second problem (as I hinted at above) is a retention problem. This one is a bit simpler. As a young fighter pilot, you'll generally fly 2-3 times per week, and sim (simulator) 2-3 times per month. As a more "experienced" pilot, you'll typically get a bit less, and once you get to the point where your commitment is up, quite a bit less, flying only 1-2 times per week. "What do you guys do the rest of the time?" Endless loads of B.S.

When most guys see that the flying days are mostly done, and that the future is full of writing OPRs/EPRs/Awards/Decs/Powerpoints/Emails/blah blah blah...they start to look for the door. Some guys have other reasons, but invariably you have to make a decision (around the 10-11 year mark after finishing pilot training) by answering the following: "Does the limited amount of flying I get to do make this job worthwhile enough to put up with the B.S.?"

If enough fighter guys say "**** this, I'm out!"? Hope its not more than 200 per year...or your actually LOSING manning (more leaving than new ones you are getting) while trying to buy more airplanes (F-35s).

This is the situation the USAF finds itself in right now, it is very real and very here. There is no easy fix. (Sorry the discussion was fighter centric...its what I'm familiar with).

Cheers,
Sled