Anyone could tell you quick, or long, but the fact is no one really knows. Lots of attrition off the top now. That wasn't the case a year ago. Our upgrades due to attrition will continue to increase. We are also going to add more flying and somehow, we are filling classes. But when we don't things will change. In 12 months we could continue to run this quick upgrade machine and fill classes. Or we could not, and not be able to staff our flying, shrink, and have reverse movement. Crapshoot. People told me I missed the quick upgrade train 18 months ago. I could have upgraded in the 18 months it took to get to 1k hrs. Trying to predict the future is useless.

But the reality is TPIC isn't nearly as important as it was a while ago, people are getting hired at majors without it. Don't chase a quick upgrade. Go with QOL for you (living in base, pay, etc.). Mesa worked well for the 18 months I did it. I lived in base and family needs outweighed pay. Company was mostly good to me. It's like the current presidential race...there are no good options. Pick your poison.