Originally Posted by
eaglefly
It very well could for any number of reasons. For a decade ? Definitely not likely, but for months or even a couple of years ? Distinctly possible.
Your figures don't match mine. From now until end of 2020 (4 years, 9 months), I came up with about 2850 age 65 retirements from the combined list. My US Airways numbers may be in question though. Could you verify your figures and source ?
I'm sure most DO wish they had that deal, but I think many believe jumping ship to the back of that line isn't a good risk. If they did you'd see more defections from other regionals. Probably similar why most Envoy F/O's won't jump ship laterally to chase a faster upgrade.
3950 was 2015-2021; that is six years from when the company first projected a 6 year flow to AA. Half of the 3950 retirements is well above our entire pilot list of guys who will elect to flow. We've already sent over 500 of the 824. People complain about Envoy shrinking from 3000 to now under 2000 without ever considering that over 850 went via flow to AA. Like it or not, the new AAG is much better than AMR was at making the flow work.
Is it perfect, nope; but it's a better program than anybody else has.