Well, I guess I nipped a little of that in the post above before reading this.

From my POV, unless Envoy starts raking in 40/month immediately, then contraction occurs and contraction is NOT a good reinforcer of maintaining any flow projection in the 5-6 year range that is now claimed. Once Envoy becomes an RAH or PSA and cannot itself maintain stability in its present feed footprint, then Parker makes his next move of shifting.....or more accurately REshifting assets and flying away from Envoy so as not to overburden. Obviously, the primary goal will be to protect E-175 ops and so look for smaller E-jets to go back to the boneyard, which is easy and quick. At some point though, a longer term plan for ALL the WO's must be embraced and acted upon considering the realities in the regional pilot procurement business. What that is could be one of several moves and I suspect now, old "kick the can" Doug is probably being fluid in his plans as there is still time to do that.

As for the flow, it will continue at minimum aggregate rate until the 824 are gone, which due to Letter T could be from a couple of months to as long as early next year. They may or may not trickle some flows during the process and/or may stop at any point DURING that process if longer then anticipated. I would think presenting the most positive environment to get through the busy Summer season will occur, but come the slow doldrums of fall, if Letter T's are still rolling in, any trickle might not be needed. Once the 824 are gone, I would anticipate metering to minimum flow rate and what is that.........like, 25/month ? At any rate, in fairly short order (within 18 months), I'd expect possible consolidation via merger or asset (which includes pilots) acquisition from failed regionals and as Doug says, "the landscape has changed".

The landscape is always changing at this legacy/regional network and so nothing can be counted on tomorrow and anyone who claims such is truly reading tea leaves.