Originally Posted by
82spukram
I believe UAL has ~235 airframes on order or acquiring through leases (319). Assuming 100 airframes are replacement aircraft:
747 being replaced by 350
757 replaced by max9
767 replaced by 787
UAL is still shrinking express and growing mainline. Not all orders are replacement but I would imagine we are headed (assuming a lot of things don't happen) towards 850 airframes. The biggest difference between us and delta is domestic revenue. Delta received the 717 at the perfect time and allowed them to kill it on the domestic side. UAL is not blind and will try to capture as much as they can by upgauging and eliminating the 50 seaters. 15000 seems like the number the company is willing to repeat over and over.
That's my best guess. An additional 300-400 pilots above attrition over the next 5 years.
There is not going to be a replacement of one type for another. It's ever evolving based on price points at time of purchase. Sure you will probably see the 350 do most of the routes the 747 does today, but the markets can change from now until they arrive.
The max will not replace the Atlantic 757s, they may replace the PS 757s, but my guess is that order will evolve over time into other types.
Also all it takes is for the next down turn to have these orders deferred or at best just become pure replacements for older aircraft in our fleet.
The mantra of growth these days is GDP-. Capacity will increase at a rate less than GDP. That's calculated in ASMs, not block hours or departures. With the up gauging going on, yes mainline will see hours shifted in from Express but overall on a consolidated basis departures are down as are block hours.
The comments and jokes about long range planning meeting every day is really not a joke but a reality. Every day global changes affect different business opportunities. It is amazing how pilots who have been in the industry for some time still believe they work in a static environment.