Originally Posted by
El10
There is not going to be a replacement of one type for another. It's ever evolving based on price points at time of purchase. Sure you will probably see the 350 do most of the routes the 747 does today, but the markets can change from now until they arrive.
The max will not replace the Atlantic 757s, they may replace the PS 757s, but my guess is that order will evolve over time into other types.
Also all it takes is for the next down turn to have these orders deferred or at best just become pure replacements for older aircraft in our fleet.
The mantra of growth these days is GDP-. Capacity will increase at a rate less than GDP. That's calculated in ASMs, not block hours or departures. With the up gauging going on, yes mainline will see hours shifted in from Express but overall on a consolidated basis departures are down as are block hours.
The comments and jokes about long range planning meeting every day is really not a joke but a reality. Every day global changes affect different business opportunities. It is amazing how pilots who have been in the industry for some time still believe they work in a static environment.
Excellent comments...best on this particular board in a long time...things change and the competition is fierce.
I've been retired coming up on a year now (closer to 70 than 60) and the best industry advice I ever received from a mentor captain was to stay well within your financial means and never be wedded to a particular contract or long-term plan...always be able to adapt...things change constantly.
This particular individual (long deceased) saw the light in the late 1970's and early '80's well before most who were still in a state of catatonic denial. It was good advice, still is...one must be able to bob and weave because tomorrow might be different.