230 AC on order, not including the 11/14 319 leases/options. UAL has approximately 15.5+ pilots per AC. If they get rid of all 747 (22), all 757(95), and 767(51), plus some of the leased 737-800/900(99), the pilot count could go down with 267 net AC loss. But if we assume only half go away that is 267/2=134ish. So a net of 96 gained A/C times 15 pilots =1440 more pilots. Probably peak of the bell curve of possibilities. Add in a 100 seat order and that could double. So best case maybe 3000 more getting count to almost 15000 pilots depending on if you start at actives 11,204 or total on list at approx 12500.

Using the 11,204 number...

If the over/under is 15K, the under is an easy bet.

if the over/under is 14k, still taking the under. and betting the morgtage.

If the over under is 13k, still staying with the under but only betting wife's 401k.

And since somebody else makes those decisions will go back to my pool. Hey is that a squirrel ?