Originally Posted by
Roper92
Has this been confirmed? 20+ years seems rather long. Is there any data out there supporting that number?
You can never confirm upgrade times but simple math is all we got.
2700 pilots with a company desired 60/40 PIC/SIC ratio = most junior captain at SN 1620. We are averaging attrition of just under 8 pilots a month recently. So to move up the required 1080 spots to upgrade would take 11.25 years. That is assuming all attrition is from people senior to you which obviously as you progress that would not be the case. Also we are still well above that 60/40 ratio by 200 captains so that will have to work itself out before upgrades start. That could tack on a few years to the 11.25 number as could recession etc. Most attrition has been 50/50 between FOs leaving for the airlines and Captains leaving for the airlines or retiring/dying. I'm not an NJ hater but those who come here should be well aware of what they are coming into and would be silly to not at least consider other options with greater career progression, greater earning potential and lower workload.