Originally Posted by
Sunvox
Got hired in 1996. 8464 out of 8472. United had doubled in size since 1985 and we continued to grow to over 10,000 strong in 2001 then fell to around 5400 at the time of the merger but of those 10.000 about 1500 were sacrificed at the altar of merger necessity.
Pan Am went bust.
Eastern went bust.
TWA went bust.
The future is never exactly the same as the past, and none of us can predict the future, but what we can do is analyze the present and make our best guesses about the future using the past as a guide.
Over the next decade nearly half of all the senior legacy pilots will retire at the same time the world is gaining affluence and demanding more air travel. The 800 lb gorilla that could tip the scales comes in the form of a Predator.
Neither I nor any other human can predict the future, but if I were to lay odds I'd say now is a good time to be a young pilot.
Joe, I agree 100% with all but the last sentence.
By all accounts, self-driving cars are probably only 5 years away. A self driving car is 10x harder that a self flying airplane. The only thing that will slow our replacement by automation is bureaucracy and legal liability.
How long do we have? Same problem with predicting the future. I would guess the FO will first be replaced with a monitoring pilot for takeoff and landing only, remotely sitting in a VR cubicle. Sort of how Predator drones are flown.
The jet will be mostly autonomous. Eventually they will be completely autonomous.
I would bet 1 man cockpits for cargo in 5-10 years. For part 121? Hard to say. A few years later?
I think if you are young pilot looking for a career, THIS is the 800b gorilla in the room. For those of us 45 or older, we will probably finish out our careers.
As far as short term pilot numbers, I think the 16,000 number is smoking crack. The only UCH "growth" planned is ASM growth, and that is coming by putting more seats in each jet, and replacing 50 seaters with something bigger. For the combined UCH, including United and UAX, we are planning a slight reduction in block hours.
"In-sourcing" UAX flying to the mainline is the only road to 16,000 pilots in the next few years, and it just might happen. Or, not.
Those jobs should have always been at the mainline. Hopefully they will undo the mistakes of the last 20 years in this regard.