Originally Posted by
Probe
Joe, I agree 100% with all but the last sentence.
By all accounts, self-driving cars are probably only 5 years away. A self driving car is 10x harder that a self flying airplane. The only thing that will slow our replacement by automation is bureaucracy and legal liability.
How long do we have? Same problem with predicting the future. I would guess the FO will first be replaced with a monitoring pilot for takeoff and landing only, remotely sitting in a VR cubicle. Sort of how Predator drones are flown.
The jet will be mostly autonomous. Eventually they will be completely autonomous.
I would bet 1 man cockpits for cargo in 5-10 years. For part 121? Hard to say. A few years later?
I think if you are young pilot looking for a career, THIS is the 800b gorilla in the room. For those of us 45 or older, we will probably finish out our careers.
As far as short term pilot numbers, I think the 16,000 number is smoking crack. The only UCH "growth" planned is ASM growth, and that is coming by putting more seats in each jet, and replacing 50 seaters with something bigger. For the combined UCH, including United and UAX, we are planning a slight reduction in block hours.
"In-sourcing" UAX flying to the mainline is the only road to 16,000 pilots in the next few years, and it just might happen. Or, not.
Those jobs should have always been at the mainline. Hopefully they will undo the mistakes of the last 20 years in this regard.
Considering the first fully automated commercial jet isn't even on the drawing soars yet it's going to be at least 10-15 years, and that's if they start today. The certification process is going to be insane and will most likely take a couple years. Then it will go to cargo to prove itself and gain public support. Once people are ok with the technology, and flying on an aircraft with no pilot, the airlines will start to pick them up (5-10 years). Then they will have to get 800-1000 on property to ditch all the pilot flown aircraft and that's going to take decades.
Worst case scenario will be 30 years before no pilots on property. The last United pilot hasn't even been hired yet I assure you.