Originally Posted by
ag386
I think the flow is working well right now. Envoy/AAG has made a critical error by holding back 5 people a couple of months ago. That small action has hurt their credibility with the pilot cadre who desperately want to believe there is a way out of the Envoy quagmire.
My opinion is that once the 824 are gone and when/if the staffing problems I've noted come to fruition, you'll see a change of the flow where 30 aren't going each month, maybe 10 are. I say when/if because AAG could decide at the last minute that cheap feed is too valuable and they might decide to do something that surpasses Endeavor to attract the limited amount of aviators out there. Unprecedented is the word here as I believe AAG will do nothing until it absolutely has to. The grass is on fire in the barnyard now and that fire has crept to the edge of the building and is burning enough that the bottom boards of the barn are now smoking. As we know with AAG, the barn will become fully engulfed before meetings start on what to do.
The hiring well is fairly dry right now with all of the regionals competing for the same limited number of bodies. If AAG offered big bucks like Endeavor or something better, other guys who have gotten out completely or are working in another segment of aviation might decide to get back in. This is happening at Endeavor now.
Eagle and especially Envoy have typically violated agreements on a regular basis and made the quality of life unbearable for some. They continue with the page from the AMR playbook to aggressively discipline and punish instead of making the work environment friendly and easy to navigate.
I bailed due to the belief that I was far enough down the list that the flow would stop or be severely reduced before it got to me. I wasn't keen on making Envoy a career always waiting and hoping for that flow carrot that the company likes to dangle and then jerk away. The dismal Envoy hiring numbers I posted yesterday that Skyvector has buried his head in the sand about, were enough evidence that things weren't too rosy from my point of view. Low hiring numbers = stagnation and regression when Envoy is "right-sized" and no longer shrinking.
You've mentioned in the past that decisions about the flow and how they calculate the numbers were well above your paygrade and that people smarter than you came up with them. I assume from your postings that your were hired 2011 or after. With that seniority, I would advise taking stock and looking at the situation. You may decide Envoy works for you and you want to wait for the flow. That's a personal decision and if it's yours and you've taken the time to examine the situation then that's great.
Although it is impossible to determine how this will impact hiring and thus flow at AA, 2016 is forecast to include a fleet reduction of 37 aircraft, more numerous in the latter half of the year after Summer. 2017 will include a further reduction in mainline fleet numbers. PBS will also be activated and the estimates as to increased efficiency in pilot usage range from about 5-15%. 37 aircraft theoretically means 370 less pilots (if usage stays the same) and the PBS factor could range from 750-2200 pilots, but I would angle more toward the lower figures in the PBS staffing componenet. Concurrently, Parker plans to INCREASE regional fleet count by 20 aircraft so, if anything he'll need MORE regional pilots over the next 18 months then now, or at least as many.
That's a tall order indeed, but it should give one pause as there may be another shoe that will drop this Fall regarding these issues and staffing and pilot need at AA. No one can conclude any certainties yet (at least outside the inner senior management circle at AAG), no one really knows, but it would be prudent to not ignore these potentially unbalanced forces. The Letter T issue only exacerbates these forces. Too many at Envoy may be themselves in a Charlie Bucket mentality and should that come to fruition, they'll have only themselves to blame for not taking a more cautious approach to the AA flow.
As usual, just my .02...........