Originally Posted by
eaglefly
Although it is impossible to determine how this will impact hiring and thus flow at AA, 2016 is forecast to include a fleet reduction of 37 aircraft, more numerous in the latter half of the year after Summer. 2017 will include a further reduction in mainline fleet numbers. PBS will also be activated and the estimates as to increased efficiency in pilot usage range from about 5-15%. 37 aircraft theoretically means 370 less pilots (if usage stays the same) and the PBS factor could range from 750-2200 pilots, but I would angle more toward the lower figures in the PBS staffing componenet. Concurrently, Parker plans to INCREASE regional fleet count by 20 aircraft so, if anything he'll need MORE regional pilots over the next 18 months then now, or at least as many.
That's a tall order indeed, but it should give one pause as there may be another shoe that will drop this Fall regarding these issues and staffing and pilot need at AA. No one can conclude any certainties yet (at least outside the inner senior management circle at AAG), no one really knows, but it would be prudent to not ignore these potentially unbalanced forces. The Letter T issue only exacerbates these forces. Too many at Envoy may be themselves in a Charlie Bucket mentality and should that come to fruition, they'll have only themselves to blame for not taking a more cautious approach to the AA flow.
As usual, just my .02...........
Your first paragraph brings up some valid points that I would like to add to as it pertains to AAG regionals in general. This is going to be a long post so bear with me
As it currently stands AAG is allowed a regional fleet of 75% of its mainline narrowbody fleet. In addition, from 2016 onward 40% of AAG mainline narrowbody fleet may include RJ's from 66-76 seats with total count of all RJ's including small and large RJ's must fit within that 75% total.
Assuming the MD-80 fleet is parked, the 757 is reduced down to roughly 25 internationally configured models and all A321 and B738 deliveries are taken plus the 20 E190s in limbo at the end of 2017 you finish with a mainline narrowbody fleet of
A319: 125
A320: 50ish (some early models have been retired)
A321: 220
B738: 305
B757: 25
E190: 20
Total: 720
Taking that final number multiplied by 75% you get an allowed total RJ count of 540 with 288 of those allowed to be between 66-76 seats. Today's RJ count with outstanding orders accounted for include
165: E70 E75 operated between Compass, RAH and Envoy
118: CR9 operated between Mesa and PSA
69: CR7 operated by SKW, PSA and ENY (22 currently count as large RJ)
118: EMB 145 operated by ExpressJet, TSA and ENY
132: CR2 operated by SKW, ExpressJet, Air Wisconsin and PSA
11: DH8-300 operated by PDT (only 300's count toward total)
283 large RJ's if 22 CR7s are reconfigured and 613 total RJs. While I agree that the large RJ fleet is growing there is going to be some serious pain among small RJ operators as AAG removes small RJs to stay within total RJ fleet count. I'll let everyone else speculate where those 60-80 removals come from. AAG's plan is no different than Delta or United in regards to RJs they're just a few years behind.
How the A320NEO and B737MAX play into those numbers or if CR7 and E70 eventually get removed to allow more E75 or CR9 options to be executed is speculation at this point