Originally Posted by
eaglefly
Good info. I don't see Parker violating APA scope, so that will mean small RJ reductions. I think some operators will cease to exist, but that depends on feed contractual issues and the individual carriers ability to attract and retain the primary commodity that is most critical, that being pilots. Ceasing to exist for many may simply mean consolidation as that is the best way to retain that critical commodity vs. kicking them loose only to lose pilots that have no interest in starting at the bottom of another regional, especially an AAG one and most especially if they were captains.
IMO, consolidation requires compromise to achieve effective harmony and those who want to play will have to be WILLING to play. For the AA flow, I think that means once the 824 are finished, the flow essentially becomes a contractual issue more easily modifiable. At present, when considering the size of each of the three WO's, the percentage of flow slots isn't that far off from being equal and I think that will be a component of the future. It will mean compromise though, but if done correctly, will actually provide more predictability for pilots even if the timeline for some may slow to accommodate others. That's what occurred in the past with BizEx and I see a strong probably of history repeating itself. This is speculation though.
Do you honestly think he'll consolidate wholly owneds before bringing others in first? I think an air wisconsin acquisition is more likely in the near future than what you described. It makes more sense for him to try to drive all the other regionals out of business, or simply to a weaker point where they can be acquired for cheap. It builds up his wholly owned model, supports his flow baby, and helps insure that AAG has control over the very last of the available regional lift going into the years ahead.